Macro · Geopolitics · Regime
Geopolitics, the economy, and market regime, worked as one system. One question a week, followed all the way through.
Regime
Risk-on
Held 6 weeks
Core CPI nowcast
0.28%
m/m · consensus 0.24%
Forecast record
7/9
Resolved · full record below
How each issue is built
States behave strategically. That behaviour moves the economy. The economy sets the market regime. The regime decides what is priced. We work the whole line, in order, every week.
What states will actually do, not what they say. Bargaining ranges, credible commitments, and the shape of the escalation ladder.
Method — game theory and bargaining analysis
Where growth, inflation, and policy are heading before the print lands. Nowcasts run against consensus so the disagreement is visible.
Method — proprietary forecasting engines and nowcasts
Which state markets are in, how stable it is, and what would break it. Correlation structure, volatility, and factor behaviour.
Method — regime classification and state modelling
What the chain means for how the world is priced, and where we think it is worth looking harder — stated plainly, dated, and written so it can be proven wrong.
Research only · no recommendations · no positions held
Every Sunday
Where the regime sits and what the nowcasts read, before any argument is made.
One question for the week. Specific enough to be answered, narrow enough to be wrong.
The chain worked end to end, with one pillar leading depending on what the week demands.
Explicit, dated, with a confidence level and the condition that would falsify it.
How prior forecasts resolved. Hits and misses, in the same place, every week.
The record
Anyone can be interesting. We would rather be checkable.
Illustrative entries. Every forecast is logged when published and never edited after the fact.
Method
You should never have to take a number on faith. Every engine is explained in plain English, with a version history, so you know what moves it.
Cutting through the Gordian knot
Sunday mornings. Free while we build the record.
The first fifty readers keep it free permanently.
Dated. Falsifiable. Scored.